Six English clubs, one huge night—all to play for in the Champions League.
A blockbuster final day of games in the Champions League’s league phase is rich in dramatic potential, with 30 teams waiting for their fate to be decided.
Six English clubs are eyeing top-eight spots, while there are notable familiar faces looking to get the better of their former employers.
Arsenal are safely through to the last 16, where they will be joined by Bayern Munich, but just about everybody else still has work to do and major targets to aim for in a congested 36-team table.
The table-topping Gunners have been predicted as being best-placed to win the competition for the first time, with Opta ranking their chances at 31% ahead of Bayern on 16.9%.
Liverpool, Tottenham, Newcastle United, and Chelsea are the other Premier League sides occupying a top-eight spot, and staying there would mean they avoid the play-offs and go straight into the last 16.
Manchester City—currently in a play-off spot—are behind seventh-placed Newcastle and eighth-placed Chelsea only on goal difference. The English trio feature among eight teams on 13 points heading into Wednesday’s final round of games, with all 18 matches kicking off at 20:00 GMT.
There have never been six clubs from one country in the competition before, never mind in the knockout stages.
Who is through to the last 16?
Leaders Arsenal have won all seven of their matches, so just a point at home against Kairat Almaty would be enough to secure the top spot ahead of Bayern.
In terms of seedings for the last-16 stage, the top two will face the winners of play-offs involving teams who finish between 15th and 18th place in the league phase.
Bayern will be certain of a top-two finish if they avoid defeat at PSV Eindhoven.
The top two will also be guaranteed to play the second leg at home in every round until the final, which will be played in Budapest.
Teams who finish between ninth place and 24th in the league phase enter the playoffs, which take place on 17/18 and 24/25 February and decide the eight teams who join the automatic qualifiers for the last 16.
Will Mourinho and Conte haunt old clubs?
The battle to pin down places in the top eight could be enthralling, given how tightly packed the standings are.
Let’s start with the easy bit. For Real Madrid and Liverpool, both on 15 points, and Tottenham, on 14, a victory on matchday eight would secure direct entry into the last 16.
Spurs face eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt in Germany, where the north London outfit won last year on the way to a Europa League triumph that secured them Champions League football this season.
Arne Slot’s Liverpool side are at home to Qarabag, who have a slim chance of still making the top eight.
“It’s all down to us again. Let’s make sure we’re in the top eight,” said Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk after last week’s win in Marseille.
“It’s very important as you miss the playoffs, and it helps with the intense program that we’re having. We’ve put ourselves in a good position.”
Real Madrid are away to their former manager Jose Mourinho’s Benfica.
Mourinho reached three Champions League semi-finals in a row with Real before leaving in 2013, but Benfica—with only two wins in their first seven games—will need to beat Real to have a chance of sneaking into the playoffs.
Behind Spurs come the group of eight teams, starting with holders Paris St-Germain in sixth down to Atalanta in 13th, on 13 points.
Newcastle, Chelsea, and Manchester City are all in that group and looking for a priceless win—and even then knowing their fate could come down to goal difference.
Chelsea are also up against a familiar face in their former head coach Antonio Conte, who won Serie A with Napoli last season.
Conte welcomes the Blues to Naples with his side sitting outside the play-off spots on goal difference and needing a positive result.
Manchester City host Galatasaray, while Eddie Howe’s Newcastle face the daunting task of travelling to PSG.
Everyone down to Qarabag in 18th still has a mathematical chance of automatically advancing as a top-eight finisher.
That is in part because, remarkably, despite 16 teams still being in contention for the six remaining top-eight spots, only two of the 18 matches have those sides facing each other.
Newcastle’s trip to Paris is one, and Borussia Dortmund at home to Inter Milan is the other.
Play-off hopefuls
It is also incredibly tight in the fight for the play-offs, with everyone down to Ajax in 32nd still in the mix for a top-24 finish.
Only the bottom four of Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal and Kairat have been eliminated.
Three points separate Marseille in 19th and Ajax, while even Dortmund in 16th—two points ahead of the French side and still with faint hopes of a top-eight finish—are not yet certain of finishing high enough to make the playoffs.
What happens if teams are level on points?
With so many teams separated by just a few points, several of the final positions will need to be decided by tiebreakers.
If teams are level on points, traditional methods of ordering teams are used first:
1. Goal difference
2. Goals scored
If records are identical, UEFA needs other methods to rank clubs.
For instance, Sporting (14-9) and Manchester City (13-9) both have 13 points and are split by one goal going into the final day.
Head-to-head record went out of the window with this new format because teams play each other only once or not at all.
3. Away goals scored
Manchester City (7) head Sporting (3) on this measure, though the Portuguese club has an away game at Athletic Club left to play.
4. Away wins
Manchester City (2) would be guaranteed to finish higher if it went to this because Sporting has not won an away game.
5. Higher number of collective points by league phase opponents
6. Superior collective goal difference of league phase opponents
7. Higher number of goals scored collectively by league phase opponents
In effect, 5-7 creates an alternative league table of the difficulty of opponents faced, based upon the league phase results.
The team that has statistically had the more difficult fixture list will be placed higher.
It is unlikely to be needed this season because any two teams who can realistically get identical records would be split by away record.
8. Lowest disciplinary points total
A red card gets three points and a yellow card one point
9. UEFA club coefficient
The highest-ranked team would progress.
Final round of fixtures
- Ajax v Olympiacos
- Arsenal v Kairat Almaty
- Athletic Club v Sporting
- Atletico Madrid v Bodo/Glimt
- Barcelona v Copenhagen
- Bayer Leverkusen v Villarreal
- Benfica v Real Madrid
- Borussia Dortmund v Inter Milan
- Club Brugge v Marseille
- Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham
- Liverpool v Qarabag
- Manchester City v Galatasaray
- Monaco v Juventus
- Napoli v Chelsea
- PSV Eindhoven v Bayern Munich
- Pafos v Slavia Prague
- Paris St-Germain v Newcastle
- Union Saint-Gilloise v Atalanta
All games kick off at 20:00 GMT, 28 January
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